A couple of months ago, we wrote an article entitled "Come for the Yield, Stay for the Gain". At the time, we suggested that our members might want to take advantage of the opportunity to lock in some very attractive yields with a number of highly rated companies that also represented excellent appreciation potential. Our reasoning was straightforward – we felt that the current dividend payouts were safe, the entire banking sector was undervalued, and Fed rate increases were coming to an end. As a result, we believed yields had peaked for the intermediate term and it was an excellent time to obtain strong, stable returns while taking advantage of potential valuation increases. At the time, the average yield for all the banks we cover was 4.2% but there were a number of very strong banks with yields considerably above the average.
At the same time, we identified two of these banks that we believed were significantly undervalued and represented both yield and price appreciation opportunities. As the chart below illustrates, these two banks, Comerica (CMA) and Zions (ZION), both outperformed the overall banking sector by a considerable margin over the past three months.
As we expected, strong market performance by the banking sector has depressed overall yields, with the average yield of our covered banks declining over 40 bps to 3.77%. However, even with this decline, there are six banks that still offer attractive yields. Not surprisingly, most of these banks are repeats from our previous list.
However, appreciation opportunities may be another story. Of our current top yielding banks, only one, Comerica, has outperformed the banking index recently.
While we do not believe that the banking sector will generate the same type of results as the previous three months, we are expecting modest price appreciation, overall, and in a few banks in particular. Based on our current target valuations, we believe that three of these high yield banks have an opportunity to outperform both the market and banking sector over the next few months – Keycorp (KEY), Truist (TFC), and our repeat champion Comerica (CMA). However, as always we could be completely wrong, so investors should do their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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