As the entire banking sector experienced precipitous valuation declines during the past couple of months, based more on panic than reality, only a very few (e.g., PACW) reduced or eliminated their dividends. In fact, as earnings and capital levels remained strong most banks actually raised their dividends somewhat resulting in significant and, in some cases dramatic, increases in yield. Hey, it's only math -- prices go down, dividends go up, yield soars. And, while we continue to see economic headwinds that could potentially impact the banking sector, we do not believe those risks are significant enough to threaten capital levels and dividend payout ratios. As a result, we also expect stock prices to continue to recover over the intermediate term, maybe not to pre-panic levels soon but certainly to more realistic valuation measures. Consequently, we believe there is a current window of opportunity to invest in quality companies that offer both significant price appreciation opportunities and very attractive current yields. As our subscribers know, we do not make investment recommendations and do not invest in individual companies. Rather, we provide information to help investors make rational decisions in consultation with their financial advisors. For all the banks we follow the average yield is now around 4.2%, and quite a few are now trading at levels that produce dividend yields over 5%. Our highest yielding bank currently is KeyCorp (also our highest rated bank in our Super Regional category) which has a current yield approaching 8%, but there are others that stand out as well.
Prices and yields as of 6/09/2023
As our subscribers also know, we compare current stock prices to our proprietary price targets and consensus analyst estimates to identify potential bargains. Just about every bank we follow continues to trade well below both targets, resulting in our overall rating for the banking sector as Undervalued. However, not all appreciation opportunities are created equal. Therefore, while we think all of our highest yielding banks have some room to appreciate in price, the largest opportunities appear to be Comerica (CMA) and Zions (ZION).
Prices and yields as of 6/09/2023
This combination of attractive yield and potential price appreciation is a condition that only happens rarely and presents conservative investors with an opportunity to reap very nice, and we believe relatively safe, returns while they wait for the market to readjust to more normal valuations. Obviously there are no guarantees and there continues to be the real possibility of potential price declines across the sector,. In fact as of this writing, some of these banks were down as much as 6% on Monday, June 12th. However, while we believe that further deterioration in market value is possible (maybe even probably), at these levels the downside risk appears to be somewhat limited.
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